Benchmark yemafuta anorema eAlberta, Western Canadian Select (WCS), yakapera svondo iri pasi peUS$50 dhiramu kekutanga kubva mukupera kwegore rapfuura.Iyo nyowani 2022 yakaderera inopomedzerwa muchikamu kudzikisa mitengo yemafuta kazhinji, asi zvakanyanya nekuda kwekuwedzera kweiyo Canadian inorema mafuta musiyano.
OPEC + RALLY FIZZLES
Mitengo yemafuta yave kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma muhafu yechipiri ya2022. Mitengo yakawana zvishoma zvishoma pakutanga kwaGumiguru, mushure mekunge OPEC + yasarudza kudzikisa zvigadzirwa nemamiriyoni maviri bbl/zuva.Kudzikisira chaiko kwaive pedyo nemiriyoni imwe bbl/zuva nekuda kwekuvhiringwa kwekupa pakati penhengo dzakakosha dzeOPEC.
Zviratidzo zvekuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika zvakadzima zvizhinji zvezviwanikwa izvi.WTI yakapera svondo paUS$76 padhiramu, kubva paUS$120 muna Chikumi.OPEC ikozvino inoti inoona musika wakawandisa mukota yechina, uye haifanire kukwidza quotas pamusangano wavo unouya waZvita 4.
WCS Discount
Nepo ese mabhenji mabhenji ari pasi kubva kumusoro kwekutanga kwaMbudzi, WCS yakatambura kupfuura mazhinji, nekuda kwekuwedzera kwekuderedzwa kwayo kuWTI.
Mitengo yemafuta uye misiyano inowanzove isingafadzi zvakanyanya munguva yechando, apo kudiwa kwemafuta kuri kuderera.Nekudaro, zvidzoreso zvegore rino ndizvo zvakakura kubva pakuderedzwa kwemirairo ya2019, zvichida nekuda kwekudzoka kwekusangana pamapombi ekunze.
Mapaipi emambure eWestern Canada akapera muna 2021 aine imwe nzvimbo, nekuda kwekupedzwa kweEnbridge's Line 3 Replacement Project muna Gumiguru 2021. TC Energy yapedza kuwedzera 50,000 bbl/zuva kwepaipi yayo yeKeystone iyo yakawedzera imwe nzvimbo.Crude export capacity, kusasanganisa zvigadzirwa zvakanatswa, inofungidzirwa kusvika 4.0 miriyoni bbl/zuva.
Kunyange hazvo kutakura njanji kwarasa kupenya kwacho, kuchiri kuverengera 125,000 bb/zuva rekutengesa kunze kwenyika, zvishoma zvachinja kubva paavhareji yegore rapfuura.
SAKA CHII CHACHINJWA?
Gore rino rakaratidza kuve rakabatikana zvakanyanya kune vashandi vejecha remafuta-hungwaru, muchidimbu nekuda kwekudzoreredzwa kwekuvhara panguva yedenda.Kweakawanda a2022, Enbridge's Mainline, iyo inotakura zvingangoita zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zveCanada zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, yaishanda pazasi-kugona nekuda kwekudonha kwekupihwa.
Asi maitiro aya adzokera kumashure, uye kugadzirwa kwakakwira zvakanyanya kuburikidza nekota yechina.Kugadzirwa kwebhitumini kunyanya, iyo inenge yese inotengeswa kuUS, inotarisirwa kubuda muna 2022 nerekodhi nyowani.Dilbit supply inofungidzirwa kuti ichakwira kusvika 300,000 bbl/zuva kukwira muna Zvita zvichienzaniswa nenguva imwe cheteyo gore rapfuura, apo mutero weWCS waingova US$15 padhiramu.
Enbridge ikozvino inoti Mainline ichagovaniswa muna Zvita, zvinoreva kuti vamwe vagadziri vanozofanirwa kutsvaga dzimwe nzira.Mainline ine crude export capacity inosvika 3.1 miriyoni bbl/zuva, ingangoita 2.3 miriyoni bbl/zuva iyo yakachengeterwa vatakuri vemafuta anorema.
Kudzima kushoma kwekugadzirisa kuri kurongwa gore rinouya, zvinoreva kuti 2023 ingangove rimwe gore rekodhi rejecha remafuta.Iyo Trans Mountain Kuwedzera Project haizopinzwa musevhisi kusvika kota yechina, iyo inogona kutumira mamwe emamwe madhiramu mumatangi ekuchengetera, kana panjanji.
Kunze kwekukanganisa kukuru mujecha remafuta, kana kudzoserwa kwezvibodzwa, migwagwa yese inonongedza kune yakawedzera kuderedzwa muna 2023.